Clinton seeks ally on China’s doorstep

By AFP
Published: 28 November 2011

Hillary Clinton will become the most senior US official to visit Burma since 1955 when she arrives on Wednesday (Reuters)

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads this week on a historic visit to Burma that aims not only to pry open the closed nation but to shake up the battle for global influence right on China’s doorstep.

Clinton on Wednesday will become the top US official to visit the nation in more than 50 years as she tests the waters after dramatic — but tentative — reforms by the military-backed government.

Clinton is expected to meet both President Thein Sein and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi. She has said she will press for greater progress on human rights and democracy, without offering any let-up in biting US sanctions.

The United States has been careful not to raise expectations for a breakthrough. But Clinton’s visit carries unmistakable symbolism as it seeks to advance US priorities in one of the countries most closely aligned with China.

Burma’s “strategic importance to the United States is closely connected to concerns about rising Chinese influence,” said John Ciorciari, an expert on Southeast Asia at the University of Michigan.

“To Beijing, Burma offers the possibility of natural resources and warm-water ports on the Indian Ocean that could be crucial in expanding China’s naval reach,” he said.

“Successful US engagement would lessen the likelihood of a strong Sino-Myanmar [Burma] alignment in years ahead.”

Beijing has provided the main diplomatic cover for Burma’s leaders but the relationship is complicated, with some in the Southeast Asian nation resentful over China’s overwhelming economic influence and historic border conflicts.

Burma recently defied China by shutting down work on an unpopular dam that would supply power across the border. Burma’s leaders, known for deep distrust of the outside world, have reached out in recent years to India, Southeast Asia nations and, now, the United States.

For the United States, progress on Burma could help resolve a main stumbling block inside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, giving new influence to the fast-growing — and mostly US-friendly — 10-nation bloc.

A stronger ASEAN would allow “China to grow and be secure but not use its new economic might to force neighbors’ hands on issues related to sovereignty,” said Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

US President Barack Obama’s administration, while saying it wants a cooperative relationship with a rising China, has recently gone on the offensive amid suspicions over Beijing’s intentions.

Obama recently announced the stationing of US troops in Australia — a clear sign of US priorities at a time of tight budgets — and has pushed ahead a trans-Pacific free trade agreement that for now excludes China.

Burma’s military seized power in 1962 but since last year has held elections, nominally handed power to civilians and freed Suu Kyi from house arrest. The new government has opened a dialogue with the opposition and ethnic minorities.

While the United States and the opposition were at first cynical about the moves, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy recently said it will re-enter mainstream politics. The party won 1990 elections but was never allowed to take power.

Even the most upbeat US policymakers acknowledge that Washington’s influence is limited in a country so fearful of outside invasion that it suddenly moved its capital to the remote outpost of Naypyidaw in 2005.

The United States bans virtually all trade with Burma and any decision to end sanctions would need approval from Congress, with which exile groups have worked closely for years to pressure the generals.

Walter Lohman of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank that is often critical of the administration, welcomed Obama’s phone consultations with Suu Kyi before the decision on Clinton’s visit.

“The fact that the president called and got her blessing and that they’re tying their policy to her makes it a very difficult decision to criticize,” Lohman said.

But Lohman doubted how much further Burma would reform, suspecting that the leadership’s main interest was to ensure it will be the chair of ASEAN in 2014.

“My guess is that the regime is calculating exactly how far it can go to get all of these things it is looking for without going too far to accommodate the political opposition,” Lohman said.

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Comments


  1. Ohn says:

    Political opposition is truly dissolved.

    All of a sudden, Aung San Suu Kyi is the new best friend of the military, Thein Sein in particular.

    There will be no more of those human right things or democracy things or anything. Military is currently busy demonstrating with ruthless killing , burning and rapings, all well documented and publicised, and are being accused of use of chemical weapon under the very eyes of ASEAN, American president and Aung San Suu Kyi who are all also busy ignoring the plight of the people with no condemnation and promoting the oppressing government.

    So there will be no more change except a few more harmless political prisoner release (some of the release will sing the praise of the government as well) and business deals with some of the armed groups.

    The highest expectation of the NLD seems to be to get some money from, IMF, ADB and NGO’s for “poverty alleviation”.

    If there is a sound, long-term, well planned workable vision for the country by NLD, it is not noticeable.

    There has also been lots of gatherings of NLD in the last two weeks. None of them were to demonstrate against evident horrible sufferings of the people.

    Either they worry that their new partner (master)the military is not going to like it if they speak for the oppressed (and killed and destroyed in this case) or they agree with the action.

    The action needed is called condemnation and calling to stop not offering to reconcile!

  2. Tettoe Aung says:

    There’s no doubt that some are worried that they can no longer rely on their begging bowls and begging skills. One will witness the influx of so-called exiles rushing back into Burma that one might need to employ ‘traffic police’ to manage the flow. Without human rights abuses in Burma and the military junta some might not even survive. Don’t worry about the NLD, the brand will look after itself. So is the saying, ‘the dogs bark but the caravan must go on.”

  3. Ohn says:

    Human right abuses are not going away in Burma. Not because people in Burma do not deserve it, not because the military is acting exactly like what they do for the half century, but because the majority do not take issue with it and their leading voice had deserted the strong call for stopping.

    Current situation is not that military has changed for the better, NLD has dropped all the principals and ignore the plight of most vicious attacks by tens of battalions of professional soldiers on defenseless people and run with the open arms towards the military.

    The lives of majority Burmese are not getting any better, only worse, only the current delirium masks it.

  4. commentor says:

    Why is the Burmese army leader driving Kachins to China instead of finding a common agreement? The military must study the constitution of a nation such as Switzerland to learn how the Germans – who once regarded themselves as a master race, the French and the Italians live and prosper by living peacefully in a single state of Switzerland.





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