Mahn Nyein Maung was brought to a courtroom inside the compounds of Rangoon’s notorious Insein prison where hundreds of political prisoners have been tried over the years. If found guilty of treason, he faces a possible death sentence or life imprisonment.

His lawyer, Kyi Myint, said that judges yesterday heard two prosecution statements, including one from a police investigator. Both charges stem from his role in the KNU, which has been battling the Burmese government for more than six decades – originally the group was fighting for an independent state, although it now calls for a federalised Burma.

A tentative ceasefire agreement on 12 January appears not to have helped Mahn Nyein Maung’s case – the treason charges were brought only recently, after he had already been in detention for seven months on immigration charges. It was only during his time in Insein prison that police discovered he was a KNU member.

His lawyer said the main evidence used by the prosecution was documents they discovered on the internet, something he claims does not qualify as concrete proof of his guilt.

“We questioned the court over whether they would accept in a trial if we submitted material from the internet as evidence against [the government],” Kyi Myint said. “At the end of the hearing, the court decided to throw out the [internet material] as evidence – that is exceptional.”

Mahn Nyein Maung has already spent time in prison on the Coco Islands, 300 kilometres south of Rangoon in the Andaman Sea. After nearly a decade in jail on the islands, he and another prisoner managed to escape on rafts, but were apprehended on the Burmese mainland and thrown back in jail.

The government has been warned that the trial could derail fragile peace talks with the KNU, which appear to be on tenterhooks in the wake of renewed attacks by Burmese troops in Karen state last week.

Although death sentences are still awarded by courts in Burma, no one has been formally executed for a number of years. Two whistleblowers sentenced to death in January 2010 for leaking details of secretive senior-level governmental visits to North Korea and Russia remain in prison.

“Yet at the same time violence in the Kachin state has worsened with reports of serious human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law,” said Michael Posner, the assistant secretary of state for human rights.

“Ultimately the ethnic violence is rooted in political causes and it will require negotiated political solutions on both sides to address the underlying grievances,” he said at the National Endowment for Democracy.

Burma’s nominally civilian government, which took over last year, has reached ceasefires with Shan and Karen rebels in an effort to end ethnic bloodshed that has gripped parts of the country since independence in 1948.

But bloody battles have taken place since June in Kachin state in the far north. Human Rights Watch in a recent report said that Burma’s army raped, tortured and killed civilians in ethnic minority conflict zones last year.

President Thein Sein has surprised even many critics by undertaking reforms and talks with minorities and the opposition. Democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi is optimistic enough that she is seeking a seat in parliament in April 1 by-elections.

Posner said that the United States has spoken to Burma about letting in monitors to ensure an “open and fair election.”

“We have had those discussions and very much hope that the process will be open both to local monitors and to those coming from outside,” Posner said.

US senators who recently visited Burma including John McCain also said that they asked Thein Sein to accept monitors but had not received a commitment.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy swept elections in 1990 but military rulers ignored the results and confined the Nobel Peace Prize winner to house arrest for most of the ensuing two decades.

Posner said it was unrealistic to expect Burma’s reforms to advance without a hitch.

“When ossified societies begin to loosen up, the process is neither linear nor smooth. That is why this administration is committed to a long-term engagement, one that both continues to push for reform and change while at the same time offering encouragement and support,” Posner said.

The Obama administration last month said it would move to restore full diplomatic relations with Burma for the first time in three decades. It has also voiced openness to ease its sweeping sanctions in return for more progress.

Bauk Gyar, an activist from Kachin state who is running in the by-elections, said at the National Endowment for Democracy event in Washington that it was premature to lift sanctions.

“If you look at it right now, even in the different ethnic areas all the companies are run by the government. Therefore if you open the road to people coming and doing business, the ethnic people will have to suffer more than before,” she said.

Appearing at the same event, Zarganar — Burma’s most famous comedian who was freed in the recent amnesty — said that he did not want to take a stance on the controversial issue of lifting sanctions.

But he said: “[Due to] the sanctions from American or from Europe, our government changed their mindset. I don’t like sanctions, but according to the strategic thinking, it’s a very good instrument.”

Around 60 labourers are dissatisfied at the $US5-a-day wages they are receiving, and complain that other companies involved in the project are paying their employees nearly double that.

Now in its fourth day, the strike threatens to draw further attention to the controversy surrounding the Tavoy venture, which upon completion in 2019 will become Southeast Asia’s largest industrial complex, and threatens to displace up to 30,000 people.

The workers say that on top of the low salary, they are required to work from dawn until dusk and are often denied meal breaks.

“About two weeks before our protest, the company gave us a contract to sign which demands we work 12 hours a day, seven days a week,” said one of the strikers. “There’s no benefit for us in that – only they [PTT] profit.”

He continued that PTT had not responded to a complaint lodged with its socioeconomic department, and 58 people began a strike on Tuesday. That number has now dwindled, but has had a nominal impact: PTT employees on Tuesday “promised a pay rise”, although the worker lamented that nothing had yet happened.

The group had been working on the Kanpauk gas pipeline project, one of a smorgasbord of features being developed for the industrial site, which will house petrochemical plants, steel mills and plastics factories, as well as a giant deep-sea port.

Plans for a 4,000 MW coal-fired power station were scrapped by the Burmese government in a shock move last month that drew the ire of Thailand, which had expected to receive around 3,400 MW of the output.

The project is led by the Thai construction giant Ital-Thai, but draws on migrant labour from across the region. One protestor said the mixture of different nationalities had created friction. “There aren’t enough water purifiers and the Chinese people point at things with their feet and not with a finger,” he said, referring to a practice considered rude in Burma.

The development is rapidly turning this quiet stretch of coastline in Tenasserim division into a vast construction site, with local campaigners fearing substantial environmental damage. But the government has attempted to portray the project as a signifier of its potential to become a key economic and strategic player in the region, given its geographical position as a gateway to ASEAN economies.

Although there has been a significant reduction in fighting, several incidents of violence and pillage of food supplies were recorded by the humanitarian group Free Burma Rangers (FBR) over the past three weeks.

On 24 January, troops from Battalion 351 and Battalion 60 fired mortars into Ler Doh IDP camp in Nyaunglebin district, western Karen state. Staff from FBR, which carries out relief efforts in Burma’s border regions, witnessed more than 40 army trucks carrying supplies to Nyaunglebin last week, suggesting a bolstering of forces in the area.

“Two days ago in the mountains, we could hear the Burma Army shelling towards Karen villages as they advanced to supply their camps,” FBR staff reported from the field. Sporadic clashes between the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and government forces also took place.

A pastor interviewed by their team explained: “Last week the Burma army told us, ‘Now there is change in Burma, if you contact the Karen National Union [the KNLA’s political wing], you will be severely punished’.”

Another church leader said, “We have been forced to move three times. The Burma army just told some of us that we could go back home, but when we asked about proof in writing, there was none.”

But FBR say they also witnessed an encounter in which Karen troops and the Burmese army chatted and shook hands on the road. The Burmese troops are reported to have said, “You can go back to your farms and villages now” to which the Karen troops responded, “We cannot go back to our homes until you leave your camps and this area.”

Earlier this month, the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Burmese government signed a historic ceasefire agreement, immediately calling for a halt to hostilities on both sides. The deal has been received with caution by many who see Burma’s democratic reforms as a largely cosmetic effort to woo Western governments.

“This is very initial stage in the ceasefire process,” David Thackabaw, vice president of the KNU, told DVB. “There are many steps we still have to take to reach our final goal of establishing a real democracy.”

Human rights activists argue that even should the ceasefire hold, there will likely be a shift towards different types of human rights violations in the border regions, rather than a drastic reduction.

“If the ceasefire ends conflict, then we would expect to see abuses coming from armed conflict to change,” said Matt Finch from the Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG). “But the abuses stemming from militarisation and development of natural resource extraction are unlikely to change, because the ceasefire has nothing to do with the root causes of those abuses.”

Since his inauguration in March last year, President Thein Sein has placed economic development at the heart of Burma’s policy agenda. In many rural areas, including Karen state, this has led to more large-scale industrial developments, including hydropower dams, mining operations and road constructions. Rights groups have reported associated abuses, including evictions, forced labour, coercion and violence as commonplace. Engrained abuses of power by the military and poor accountability mechanisms are cited as significant obstacles to progress.

“In many areas land grabbing is becoming the main problem,” Kweh Say, from Burma Issues, warned. “This could get even worse after the ceasefire, because there are no preparations on either side for restoring or resettling displaced villagers.” He warned that ending sanctions against natural resource investment was likely to aggravate these abuses further.

Human rights abuses are but some of the contentious issues that still need to be addressed in the coming rounds of talks between the government and ethnic armies, along with securing a nationwide ceasefire, de-militarisation and amending the controversial 2008 constitution, popularly slated as undemocratic.

Laric, coordinator of the Refugee Assistance Groups Network, which is working in the region, warned those displaced against attempting to find their way back to their villages. Up to 70,000 have been forced to flee since June 2011, many to Kachin rebel territory close to China.

“The refugees – even their children – are very keen to go home but there’s no chance for them without a guarantee [for their safety] from the government, the UN or the KIO,’ said Laric, referring to the Kachin Independence Organisation, whose armed wing has been battling the government for more than seven months.

Numbers of refugees have made sporadic trips home to tend to their crops and livestock, although would often return to the camps. But supplies are low, thanks largely to a government blockade on international assistance to the Kachin living in rebel territory – one convoy carrying blankets and food was allowed to visit the KIO’s headquarters in Laiza last December, but nothing since.

UN envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana is currently in Burma where he is expected to press the government on allowing greater access for aid agencies. At present, the reflief has been largely coordinated by local groups channelling aid across the border from China.

Laric warned that conditions in the 30 camps along the border were worsening – many families have been sheltering under tarpaulins supplied only as an emergency measure last year, and which have little durability, while food stocks have consistently been low.

A UN official in Rangoon told DVB yesterday that it was “not at a stage when we can deliver another aid convoy” but would maintain pressure on the government, which is resistant towards allowing international groups to access regions controlled by anti-Naypyidaw armies.

The Wun Pawng Ninghtoi aid group, also in Kachin state, told IRIN earlier this week that conditions in some of the camps were dire, with unsanitary conditions combining with cold weather to give rise to preventable diseases such as stomach parasites.

It said that in one camp that houses around 1,200 refugees, only five latrines were available.

Burmese troops last week began pulling out from areas around Mansi in Kachin state, although the same brigade was subsequently seen travelling in a convoy through northern Shan state, towards volatile areas through which the Shwe pipeline will run, suggesting it was a redeployment rather than withdrawal.

Negotiations took place between government officials and the KIO in the Chinese border town of Ruili a fortnight ago, but ended with both sides failing to agree to an end to fighting.

Burma is bracing itself for a major influx of tourists over the coming year as political reforms bring it out of decades of isolation. The city of Mandalay, romanticised in a poem by British writer Rudyard Kipling more than a century ago, is expecting to shoulder many of the arrivals, but municipal authorities have begun to worry about their first impressions.

“[The announcement] said the presence of beggars and vagabonds near the central railway station is damaging to the city’s clean image,” a journalist in Mandalay told DVB.

Mandalay has seen an increase in the number of beggars over the past year, many of whom operate in groups around the railway station, which is the main entrance point for arrivals to the city.

The authorities’ task will be complicated however by the various cunning disguises that beggars are known to adopt, with some taking to the streets dressed in monk robes or masquerading as charity workers.

The journalist said it was unclear whether those taken off the streets would be provided with shelter by government agencies, or whether the ban on begging would be compensated by work schemes.

“Will there be any safety for the child beggars [after they get arrested]? There is nothing else they can do except from getting arrested because we are only adopting easy, short-term [solutions],” said the journalist, requesting anonymity.

Reports from Rangoon suggest that hotels are at bursting point, while seats on flights from Bangkok to the former Burmese capital are filling up at a rapid rate. The government’s decision to ban beggars is one of a number of expected measures aimed at given the country’s image something of a facelift.

Naypyidaw’s close relationship with Beijing, which, over the past two decades has included massive deliveries of Chinese arms to Burma and other military cooperation, certainly is. Even more alarming is the presence of North Korean technicians in the country, and frequent arrivals of North Korean ships Burmese ports over the past five years or so.

But Thein Sein is dodging the issue. Although there are suspicions to that effect, no one has actually claimed that Burma has a nuclear relationship with North Korea. The North Koreans are known to have been involved in the construction of underground bunkers and tunnels at various locations in Burma, and they were — and probably still are — assisting the Burmese in missile development at a top secret defence industry complex at Minhla in Magwe division, and possibly other sites as well.

When Burmese general Shwe Mann paid an official visit to North Korea in November 2008, he and his delegation signed a defence agreement with Pyongyang, and visited missile sites and inspected air defence radars. Today, Shwe Mann is the speaker of the Lower House of the new Burmese parliament, and as such was one of the dignitaries who received Clinton during her visit. On the way to and from North Korea in 2008, Shwe Mann’s delegation stopped in Beijing and Kunming, where they were received by high-ranking Chinese military officials, who were obviously aware of the cooperation between Burma and North Korea.

The last of several recorded attempts to ship weaponry from North Korea to Burma took place in May and June 2011, several months after Thein Sein became president and after government officials had claimed that there was no military cooperation with North Korea. On May 26 last year, The USS McCampbell caught up with M/V Light, a Burma-bound North Korean cargo vessel suspected of carrying missile parts and possibly other military equipment. The US destroyer approached the ship and asked to board, but the North Koreans refused.  The first encounter took place in the sea south of Shanghai, and, a few days later closer to Singapore, the M/V Light stopped and then turned back to its homeport in North Korea — all the way tracked by US surveillance planes and satellites.

So can Thein Sein’s statement in Singapore really be taken at face value? It is important to remember that Burmese officials also announced in June 2010 that they were no longer sending military personnel to Russia for training. However, Burmese military personnel are still present at a number of military schools and training facilities in Russia, including the Omsk Armour Engineering Institute, the Air Force Engineering Academy in Moscow, the Nizhniy Novgorod Command Academy, and the Kazan Military Command Academy. Some are serving as cadets with the Russian Air Force.

The choice of Singapore for Thein Sein to make his announcement this week was also peculiar. For years, Singapore has been a transshipment point for military-related equipment destined for Burma. In April 2008, Japan’s public broadcaster NHK reported that North Korea had been selling multiple rocket launchers to Burma with a range of about 65 kilometres. The report said that “full-scale” exports of the weapons had been handled by an unnamed Singapore trading company. Most North Korean ships on their way to Burma used to dock in Singapore, where the North Koreans maintain a string of front companies and do much of their overseas banking.

Singapore, on its part, paid for the construction of a firing range near Minhla, where heavy weapons, including artillery and rockets, are tested. Singapore, a small island country which does not have enough space for such testing, brings its weapons to the site, which is adjacent to Burma’s Defence Industry Complex 2, at Malun in Minhla township — and an even more secretive facility, Defence Industry Complex 10, at nearby Konegyi. Part of that facility is located underground, and North Korean tunneling experts are reported to have assisted the Burmese army in building these. North Korean technicians are also reportedly taking part in the production of missiles and missile components at Konegyi, which is believed to be the main site for missile research and development in Burma.

So the question remains, has all of this come to an end because Clinton visited Burma last year and Thein Sein made his statement in Singapore? That is hard to believe. Over the past few months, relations between the United States and Thein Sein’s government have no doubt undergone a remarkable transformation. But that strategic change didn’t happen overnight. As early as 2004, an important document was compiled by Lt. Col. Aung Kyaw Hla, a researcher at Burma’s Defence Services Academy. His 346-page classified thesis, titled “A Study of Myanmar-U.S. Relations,” outlined the policies which are now being implemented to improve relations with Washington and lessen dependence on Beijing. The establishment of a more acceptable regime than the old junta provided has made it easier for the Burmese military to launch its new policies, and to have those taken seriously by the international community.

As a result, relations with the United States are indeed improving, exactly along the lines suggested by Aung Kyaw Hla in 2004. While paying lip service to human rights and democracy, the United States primarily wants to lure Burma away from China and North Korea. And it is certain that many Burmese military officers feel uncomfortable with the heavy dependence on China — and do not want to end up in the same pariah category of nations as North Korea. On the other hand, however, it would be foolish for the Burmese military to put all their eggs in one basket — the American one — and completely sever ties with North Korea. No other country has been willing to share its missile technology with Burma, or to engage in barter trade to pay for such deliveries. Having unloaded their secret wares in Burmese ports, the North Korean ships have almost invariably carried rice as their return cargo. Any statements made by Burmese officials regarding the military’s cooperation with foreign partners should, therefore, be taken with a large pinch of salt.

The event was due to take place on 4 February at a monastery in Mayangon township, but a phone call from the head of Rangoon division’s Sangha Maha Nayaka quickly put a stop to that.

“At first, the township’s administrators turned up and tried to stop the event, and the [monastery’s] abbot told them they were in no position to block a merit-making event for monks,” said Ko Ko Lay, who organised the ceremony.

“It appears they took it to the Sangha Maha Nayaka, and the committee has banned the event, claiming that it had a political agenda.”

Prominent figures lined up for the event included released student leader Min Ko Naing and Shan leader Khun Htun Oo. They were among nearly 300 political prisoners released in the 13 January amnesty.

But despite an apparently opening political environment in Burma, many remain concerned at the government’s treatment of monks. The country’s monastic community is seen as power political force, and the government’s unease at their continued influence is exemplified by the 48 monks who still remain behind bars.

According to data compiled by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners–Burma (AAPP), the majority of these were charged under Act 5j, which penalises those deemed “to affect the morality or conduct of the public or a group of people in a way that would undermine the security of the Union or the restoration of law and order”.

Earlier this month a prominent Burmese monk, Ashin Pyinya Thiha, who has links to the political opposition, was evicted from his Rangoon monastery. His growing profile had irked the government in Burma, which considered the Sardu monastery as something of an organising hub for the opposition.

The order for the eviction came from the same Rangoon wing of the Sangha Maha Nayaka committee that blocked this weekend’s event.

Monks continue to hold substantial political clout in Burma, despite regular intimidation by authorities. A group of monks who in November last year protested in Mandalay are now reportedly under “village arrest” in Thaphyay Aye in Sagaing division, signifying ongoing unease within the government about the degree of influence they have over Burmese.

The two sides have been in talks over the past month, but today’s decision is the strongest signal yet that a ceasefire is on the cards. Saw Hla Maung Shwe, who has acted as a broker for Naypyidaw’s Internal Peace Making Committee, told DVB that additional negotiations would take place.

Like the recent agreements between the government and warring Karen and Shan armies, the NMSP has demanded that it be allowed to open liaison offices in Mon state and decide on territory.

NMSP officials said another round of talks would take place in the third week of February.

The group, which was formed in 1962, agreed to a ceasefire with the former junta in 1995, but relations have dramatically fluctuated since 2010 when the government demanded that the NMSP become a Border Guard Force.

Following the refusal to bow to government demands, Mon refugees fled to Thailand in their thousands, fearing an outbreak of fighting. Although that never materialised, the atmosphere in Mon state has since remained tense.

Major Soe Moe Aung, personal assistant to Railway Minister Aung Min, who is leading the government’s peace team, said that several stages still needed to be reached before a ceasefire is cemented.

“It’s not final yet. The [NMSP] delegation will debrief its Central Committee about what they agreed here and it should be finalised in the [meeting in the] third week of February.”

On Monday another rebel group, the Shan State Army–North, agreed to a truce with the government, and has reportedly already begun negotiating territory in the eastern Burmese state.

It follows the signing of a ceasefire on 12 January between Naypyidaw and the Karen National Union, whose six-decade war with the Burmese government is the world’s longest-running. Like the NMSP, however, the Karen army still needs to agree to additional points, including the carving up of Karen territory.

The five-day naval drill, known as the Milan exercise, is focused on joint efforts at combating piracy and terrorism in the strategically key waters off eastern India. Burma’s maritime territory also extends into the Bay of Bengal.

The Times of India said that of particular concern to regional countries is the stability of the Malacca Straits beneath Singapore, through which up to 60,000 vessels pass each year transporting cargo to and from Asia-Pacific economies. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands, around which this week’s exercises will take place, act as a gateway to the strait.

That choke-point is also a key route for Middle Eastern and African oil bound for China, which has already signalled concern about US warships that patrol beneath Singapore, and the potential for it to be cut off.

The sight of warships that belong to countries like India and Vietnam, whose relations with China are strained, carrying out joint drills in the Bay of Bengal is sure to unnerve Beijing, which has sought to develop an alternative to the Malacca Straits with the trans-Burma Shwe oil and gas pipelines.

China’s once unrestrained ability to tap Burma’s natural resources took a knock last October when Naypyidaw announced a decision to scrap the Myitsone Dam in Kachin state, which was financed by Beijing and whose output would have fed China’s southern Yunnan province.

The decision pointed to a growing unease within the Burmese government at its economic reliance on China, and Burma’s leaders will now seek to draw themselves away from Beijing through boosting economic and security cooperation with India.

Burma’s foreign minister, Wunna Maung Lwin, was in New Delhi last week on a four-day visit where he met with his Indian counterpart S.M. Krishna – the latter said after the talks that the two country’s “security interests are intertwined”, particularly along their lengthy shared border where India separatist groups shelter, sometimes on Burmese soil.

But India and Burma’s security relations go further, with India thought to be one of a handful of countries that still supplies weaponry to the Burmese, although this thought to comprise mostly artillery which is destined mainly for Burmese army camps in its northwest close to where Indian separatist groups are located.